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#NoEstimates (Allen Holub)

Allen Holub · 259K views · 2015-07-06 · 37:45

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Overview

Allen Holub's keynote arguing that estimation is harmful, particularly in Agile, and presenting planning approaches based on data and flow instead. It covers the distinction between estimation and data-driven prediction.

On Hacker News

Recommended in estimation and sprint debates as a well-reasoned account of where waste is and isn't in agile.

Recommended by 2 HN people across 2 months · HN mentions 2019–2025

Topics

Software practice, open source & careersManagement, leadership & organizations
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noestimatesagilecycle timeplanningcumulative flow

What people said

coryfklein · 2022-10 · Strong recommendation

One could write a solid critique of sprints and how they help or don't, and where time is wasted, but this article is overzealous and comes off as motivated more by anger than reasoning. If you want a well-reasoned discussion of where the waste is and isn't, I highly recommend Allen Holub's talk #NoEstimates [0]. [0] [VIDEO]

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Vinalin · 2019-04 · Strong recommendation

There's an interesting video by Allen Holub that I've seen on the somewhat related topic of ridding software development of estimates (#NoEstimates)[1]. He argues that they're responsible for deadlines that are impossible to meet due to them being based completely on a guess. He then goes on to talk about how we can still get predictive power without giving estimates. I found it extremely interesting and highly recommend it. [1] [VIDEO]

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hal-eisen · 2025-12 · Reference

[VIDEO] #NoEstimates Yes, be agile. Yes, measure all the things. But estimation sets everyone up for disappointment.

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Sources

Video by Allen Holub, played through YouTube.

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