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The Bayesian Trap

Veritasium · 4.5M views · 2017-04-05 · 10:37

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Overview

Veritasium explains Bayes' theorem with examples and introduces the 'Bayesian trap', where repeated events get mistaken for inevitable ones. It discusses how priors shape our expectations and behavior.

On Hacker News

HN points to it as an accessible introduction to Bayesian reasoning and as inspiration for personal projects.

Recommended by 2 HN people across 2 months · HN mentions 2017–2024

Topics

Probability & game theoryData science & statistics
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bayes theorempriorsstatisticsprobabilityreasoning

What people said

partycoder · 2017-11 · Recommendation

Another problem for the less familiar with the Bayes theorem is what is described as the "Bayesian trap", explained by the youtuber Veritasium: [VIDEO]

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burntrelish1273 · 2017-04 · Recommendation

Definitely. Another good idea is to show the difference between reality and data can be overwhelmingly significant. Videos demonstrating this with examples: - "The Bayesian Trap" [VIDEO] - "Is Most Research Wrong?" [LINK]

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LolBatmanHuntsU · 2024-08 · Reference

Inspired by this Veritasium video: [VIDEO] I'm working on a journal that incorporates Bayesian learning on how aspects of my life affect my mental, physical and social well-being. Having used it for nearly 500 days I plan to turn it into a life accounting and auditing tool. [LINK]

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Sources

Video by Veritasium, played through YouTube.

Data and selection notes

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HN Library: HackerTube export (2026-10-31) and open-index/hacker-news. Upstream summaries and classifications may contain AI errors.

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