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Sarah C. M. Paine — Why dictators keep making the same fatal mistake

Dwarkesh Patel · 5.4M views · 2023-10-04 · 2:24:33

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Overview

Dwarkesh Patel interviews Sarah Paine, a Naval War College historian, about continental versus maritime powers and how that explains decisions by Xi and Putin. They also cover a possible Taiwan war, the fall of the British Empire, WW2 strategy and how to study history.

On Hacker News

HN commenters use it as a source for Paine's continental-versus-maritime framework and her views on sanctions when discussing geopolitics.

Recommended by 1 HN people across 1 months · HN mentions 2023–2025

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What people said

throw0101b · 2023-11 · Recommendation

> The value of the land in a long run tends towards infinity, especially if it is populated with taxable people and factories. The taxable people often end up dead and the factories destroyed. Since about the (Second) Industrial Revolution going after land really hasn't been a good way to gain wealth. Sarah Paine, Professor of History and Strategy at the US Naval War College has some interesting ideas in "The Geopolitics and History of Continental and Maritime Power": * [LINK] * [VIDEO]

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throw0101d · 2025-09 · Reference

> 25 years ago, IR scholar Dan Drezner wrote the book _The Sanctions Paradox_ which tried to explain, in an IR theory sort of way, why sanctions are used so often and achieve so little- they don't overthrow governments, they rarely even manage to make governments stop doing the things we don't like. Sanctions are a negative-rate compounding system. Sarah Paine from the US Naval War College: > People look at sanctions and go, “Oh, they don't work because you don't make whoever's annoying you change whatever they're doing.” What they do is they suppress growth so that whoever's annoying you over time, you're stronger and they're weaker. And the example of the impact of sanctions is compare North and South Korea. It's powerful over several generations. * [VIDEO] * [LINK]

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pas · 2025-01 · Reference

There's no need to demonize people, soulless systems will do just fine. Game theory is pushing continental powers against maritime ones. [VIDEO]

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Sources

Video by Dwarkesh Patel, played through YouTube.

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