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The Great Stranding: How Inaccurate Mainstream LCOE Estimates are Creating a Trillion-Dollar Bubble

RethinkX · 38.2K views · 2021-03-11 · 18:58

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Overview

RethinkX summarizes its report arguing that mainstream LCOE estimates are inflating a bubble in coal, gas, nuclear and hydro assets. It claims solar, wind and batteries will strand conventional energy investments.

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Cited in nuclear-versus-renewables debates to support the argument that cheap renewables undercut new nuclear.

Recommended by 2 HN people across 2 months · HN mentions 2022–2025

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What people said

natmaka · 2023-11 · Strong recommendation

> Nuclear AND Renewable energy It cannot be done because it financially condemns new nuclear plants. "The rates at which conventional power plants are utilized will continue to decrease as competitive pressure from near-zero marginal cost solar photovoltaic and onshore wind power, and battery energy storage continue to grow exponentially worldwide." Eye-opening video: [VIDEO]

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enslavedrobot · 2023-03 · Recommendation

I don't think there is much point is continuing this discussion, though, as a PhD materials chemist with an MBA, I could literally write dissertations on the future costs of solar and storage. Instead, I'll leave you with two YouTube videos that outline the future of distributed energy and the fate of centralized generation. [LINK] [VIDEO] Peace

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natmaka · 2025-09 · Reference

Indeed! Experts (International Energy Agency, McKinsey, etc.) are clear: renewables will produce the majority of electricity by 2050. [LINK] [LINK] This is inevitable (no other possibility is realistic), and this applies to France, where RTE (EDF's subsidiary that manages the electricity grid) has emphasized that 100% nuclear power is out of the question, and that more than 60% nuclear power would be utopian. This trend is already clearly visible and welcomed by investors. [LINK] The cost of producing renewable electricity is increasingly lower than that of nuclear power. [LINK] During their operation, they do not consume fuel, produce waste, or expose people to a major accident, and are therefore and will be preferred. [LINK] The surplus electricity sometimes produced by renewables will be leveraged by increasing storage capacity (electric vehicles, hydro pumped storage, etc.) as well as green hydrogen. It will gradually replace nuclear electricity, which is supposed to compensate for their variability, especially since the latter cannot adjust its production quickly and frequently enough ( [LINK] ). All of this will reduce the nuclear load factor and therefore increase its production cost (it is only profitable with a high load factor), with strong feedback (the higher the load factor, the more likely it will be). This will increasingly favor the deployment of a system based primarily on renewables, meaning that nuclear electricity will become less and less useful and more

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Video by RethinkX, played through YouTube.

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