HackerTube.dev

Derren Brown - The System (Full)

ScepticaTV · 408.3K views · 2011-02-12 · 47:03

Open on YouTube ↗

If playback is restricted in your region, try opening the original video. Use Mark watched to add it to your marked videos.

Overview

Derren Brown's TV special in which he convinces a person he has a system for predicting horse race winners, demonstrating how survivorship bias and selective outcomes can fake predictive powers.

On Hacker News

HN cites it as the classic demonstration of survivorship and confirmation bias in betting, trading and prediction claims.

Recommended by 3 HN people across 3 months · HN mentions 2013–2017

Topics

Search by tags

What people said

Fuzzwah · 2014-11 · Strong recommendation

This reminds me of Derren Brown's awesome "The System" special: [VIDEO] More info for anyone who hasn't had the pleasure of knowing who Derren Brown is: [LINK] Derren Brown is a British illusionist, mentalist, trickster, hypnotist, painter, writer, and sceptic. He is known for his appearances in television specials, stage productions, and British television series such as Trick of the Mind and Trick or Treat. Since the first broadcast of his show Derren Brown: Mind Control in 2000, Brown has become increasingly well known for his mind-reading act. He has written books for magicians as well as the general public. Though his performances of mind-reading and other feats of mentalism may appear to be the result of psychic or paranormal practices, he claims no such abilities and frequently denounces those who do. Brown states at the beginning of his Trick of the Mind programmes that he achieves his results using a combination of "magic, suggestion, psychology, misdirection and showmanship".

Read the original HN comment ↗
sparkzilla · 2014-12 · Recommendation

For a good example of confirmation bias watch Derren Brown's "The System" [1] where he makes a woman believe an unknown benefactor has a foolproof system for betting on horses. "Mail Order Prophet" [2] by Alfred Hitchock has a similar idea. [1] [VIDEO] ] [2] [LINK]

Read the original HN comment ↗
sgdesign · 2014-09 · Recommendation

I don't know if your assessment of the study is valid (it seems a little simplistic to think that they wouldn't account for this to be honest), but what you describe is classic Survivorship Bias. Here's an entertaining video from Derren Brown that shows how to use this technique to convince people you have psychic powers: [VIDEO] Edit: also see the comment about the Miracle Man scam in this thread.

Read the original HN comment ↗

Sources

Video by ScepticaTV, played through YouTube.

Data and selection notes

HN summaries and labels may contain AI errors. HN dates refer to discussions, not video publication.

HN Library: HackerTube export (2026-10-31) and open-index/hacker-news. Upstream summaries and classifications may contain AI errors.

Views, duration and playback status refresh separately from the published catalog. When an update fails, existing data remains visible.

Selection checks
  • SaaS & AI candidates: Topic keywords do not match
  • Editor-approved picks: Editorial review is required

Rule matches identify candidates. They do not guarantee video quality or financial results.

About the library and its sources