A visual guide to Bayesian thinking

What people said

mathzthrowaway6 · 2017-08 · Strong recommendation

I wrote the present comment to 1) teach something about mathematics and probability 2) share enlightenment. In summary this comment should change your thinking about all subjects, forever. -------------- Program of study for this comment: 1. Read section 1 (approx. 1 hour.) Goal: improve your mathematical reasoning. 2. 30 minute break. 3. Read section 2 (approx 5 minutes). Goal: enlightenment. 1. The most important mathematical video you will ever see in your life. Firstly, unless you are a practicing mathematician this is the most important mathematical video you will ever see in your life. It is purely about mathematics: [VIDEO] Watch it. Suppose that you take an hour and learn this. You have just improved your rational thinking forever. - Break. Please now take a 30-minute break. During this time you can reflect and assimilate the knowledge you have learned. - 2. The most important social insight you will read in any comment. This section requires you to understand section 1. Next, suppose that you are perfectly rational. If I present you a (fair) coin and ask you to judge whether it is fair, after, say, thirty or forty flips you will conclude that it is fair. If I give you the same coin but also the knowledge that it was drawn from an infinite bag with 1 fair coin in it -- for example, let's say coins are numbered, I select a real number between 0 and 1, and only the coin with the exact value 0.5 is fair, any other coin is unfair, weighted - then even given hours, days, w

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mathzthrowaway6 · 2017-08 · Strong recommendation

Note: as a throwaway I was unable to complete edits to this comment, therefore please upvote (and endorse) only this version. The first version should remain dead as a dupe. ----- In the spirit of the article we're discussing, I wrote the present comment to 1) teach something about mathematics and probability 2) share a bit of social enlightenment. In summary this comment should change your thinking fundamentally. You will need to read it carefully but I promise it is relevant. (Please endorse it and upvote it, if you agree.) -------------- Program of study for this comment. I suggest you go through this comment as follows. 1. Read section 1 (approx. 1 hour.) Goal: improve your mathematical reasoning. 2. 30 minute break. 3. Read section 2 (approx 5 minutes). Goal: social insight. 4. Generalize the insight just gained. Goal: make the example more practical. This is an exercise for the reader. ---------- 1. One of the most important mathematical videos you will ever see. Firstly, unless you are a practicing mathematician this is one of the most important mathematical video you will ever see: [VIDEO] Watch it. As a result you will improve your rational thinking forever. - Break. I suggest you next take a 30-minute break. During this time you can reflect on and assimilate the knowledge you have learned. - 2. An important social insight. This section requires you to understand section 1. Next, suppose that you are perfectly rational. We will introduce an extreme case, and you will

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techsin101 · 2021-08 · Recommendation

Bayesian statistics at play here... Good explanation: [VIDEO] Imagine a world where there are 100 unvax and 9 million vaxed, now even if vaccines are 99% effective, you'd get 9M x 0.01 = 90k vax and sick.

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